Report on Water–agriculture–energy nexus in Central Asia through the lens of climate change

This study examines the climate vulnerabilities of Central Asia’s water, agriculture, and energy sectors at province level, using an index-based approach that quantifies their exposure, sensitivities, and adaptive capacities. As a climate exposure metric for the water and agriculture sectors the study uses projections of river discharge and agricultural productivity under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, which are viewed here as ‘optimistic’ and ‘pessimistic’ climate scenarios respectively. The sensitivity indicators reflect the degree to which an affected resource is integrated into the economic activity of a province. The energy sector assessment takes into account the challenges associated with meeting projected increases in electricity demand, as well as a global imperative to achieve carbon neutrality by the middle of the century. As a universal barometer for measuring adaptive capacity for all three sectors across the provinces, the study uses proxies of their economic and institutional performances.