CAREC Institute’s Quarterly Economic Monitor No. 15

The CAREC Institute’s Quarterly Economic Monitor #15 reports that most CAREC economies experienced stronger GDP growth in 2024 than the already robust growth in 2023, with services and exports—especially metals and gold—driving this growth. However, disinflation has largely ended, and some inflation pressures have re-emerged, not least because of higher food prices caused by climate-related challenges such as droughts and floods. Accordingly, the monetary policy stance of CAREC central banks has become more cautious again.

Despite ongoing geoeconomic and climate challenges, 2025 holds promise for the CAREC region. In most CAREC economies’ growth will remain above 4-5% yoy according to forecasts by International Financial Institutions. However, the region still faces significant challenges. Climate change, geoeconomic tensions and technological progress require major structural changes, accelerated decarbonization, and a shift towards investments in new technologies. The year 2025 will play a pivotal role in determining how the region’s GDP is produced and distributed in future, and how to sustain growth and social well-being while adapting to the evolving challenges.