CAREC Institute’s Quarterly Economic Monitor No. 14

The CAREC Institute’s Quarterly Economic Monitor #14 provides a comprehensive update on economic trends in the CAREC region. In the first half of 2024, real GDP growth accelerated across most CAREC economies, primarily driven by growth in the services and manufacturing sectors. However, International Financial Institutions (IFIs) anticipate a slowdown in growth for most CAREC economies in 2024 overall, as well as in 2025 compared to 2023. Mining activity has remained volatile in most CAREC countries, while export growth for oil and gas exporters has decelerated. Inflation rates have declined, and monetary policy has become more accommodative. Credit to individuals has continued to expand robustly, and corporate credit has also grown, though at a slower pace. Exchange rates have remained broadly stable throughout 2024.

Additionally, this edition provides an overview of a range of monetary and fiscal policy measures adopted by the PRC to re-accelerate growth, primarily aimed at stimulating consumer and investor spending and addressing local government debt reform. A special feature highlights the persistent characteristics of CAREC economies over the past two and a half decades, such as the share of GDP spent on consumption and investment, net-exporting and net-importing countries, and the size of government spending. However, there have been fluctuations in these compositions, which impact the development paths of CAREC countries and may be of interest to our readers.